Tadeuoc escreveu:Realmente, Cadu, posso estar tão cético por não saber qual negócio da empresa.
às vezes o balanço é kgado mas o negócio é ótimo..
Só que sei lá. Não vejo uma valorização nem de 5% nesse ano pra empresa (considerando a faixa que ela vem caminhando até uns 28,xx). o custo da dívida é baixo, verdade. E mesmo assim ela não consegue lucrar muito. Os dividendos, mesmo sendo de 51% payout ainda são pequenos, dando menos que poupança. eu esperaria ela melhorar.
NDR feedback: positive news
flow ahead; BUY opportunity
Feedback from US NDR; positive news across the board
We hosted a roadshow with Iochpe’s top management in the US last week,
including Dan Ioschpe (CEO), Marcos Oliveira (Corporate VP) and Luis Abreu (IR
Director). In general terms, management showed a high degree of confidence that
Iochpe will present improving results throughout the year, bringing EBITDA
margins back to double digit levels and reducing net debt / EBITDA to below 4x.
We also noted investors seemed increasingly interested on the name. After these
meetings, we became even more positive on Iochpe. In our view, the company
presents a unique opportunity: it combines a premium profile and experienced
management, with short term earnings distorted by the recent M&As, but with a
very attractive valuation and strong multiples compression for 2014.
A quick overview on their global automotive operations
We learned that the Brazilian operations are performing very well in the
automotive segment (light and heavy vehicles), with margins back to historical
levels. On International markets, NAFTA is also doing fairly well (light vehicles
better than heavy), thus on a consolidated basis Americas (ex rail) are back to
double digit margins. Europe remains weak as expected, but the good news is
that volumes have finally stabilized in the recent months.
Leverage, Europe and rail are the main concerns
The most frequently mentioned concerns were: 1) high leverage (at 4.6x net debt /
EBITDA); 2) performance of the European unit; and 3) the negative environment
for the rail business. On the first topic, management seemed comfortable with
their de-leverage plan. Assuming no drastic change on the current environment,
leverage should end the year below 4x net debt / EBITDA. On Europe, volumes
are still weak (as expected), but they are not deteriorating anymore. Lastly, on the
rail business, a top line improvement is not expected, but margins should
gradually converge to break-even levels as capacity is adjusted.
In this scenario, what to expect for 2Q, 2013 and 2014?
All in, we believe investors should expect Iochpe's top line to remain close to
R$1.5bn in the 2Q, with consolidated EBITDA margins showing an impressive
expansion QoQ and reaching a figure between 11% and 12%. For 2013,
revenues tend to growth at high single digit level, with consolidated EBITDA
margin around 10%. Finally, for 2014, expect revenues growing mid single digits
and consolidated margins up another 100-150bps YoY, as one-off costs from
plants terminations should not be an issue and rail should make break even.
Valuation getting attractive; BUY Iochpe
We acknowledge that Iochpe’s 2013 PE (25.5x) is not an attractive valuation. But,
ST earnings are distorted by the leverage from the recent M&As and several oneoff
costs. Looking 1-year forward, Iochpe offers a very attractive combination: (1)
solid LT fundamentals; (2) an attractive 34% upside potential; and (3) sharp
multiples contraction for 2014, with 12.7x PE, 15% below the sector average.